+++4PM Update+++

New storms are firing now along the real cold front and a new Severe T/storm Watch is now in effect for the region through 11PM.

+++++

Well I was probably due for a forecast bust, and we’ve now moved into that territory. As you know I tell you when we do well in a forecast on occasion and I tell you when I more or less blow it. It’s raining, that was expected, some are getting a bunch of rain…that too was expected, some have gotten some hail, that too was expected, but in all honesty all this was expected about 3-6 hours later than it occurred. That’s where the bust is coming from and I’m not happy about it.

Well it turned into a somewhat frosty start to the weekend around these parts, not unusual at all for this time of the year and I wouldn’t be surprised if we did it again on MON AM around the region.

Temperatures are now bouncing upwards and will eventually finish the day in the 65-70° range. There are quite a bit of clouds scooting across N MO right now, but for our area skies will generally be mostly sunny for the rest of the afternoon.

Another weak push of cool air will move into the area later tonight. The wind shift now is across the Plains states and will push through this evening although aloft the cooler air won’t arrive till early tomorrow AM. The only issue for the forecast tomorrow is that there may be a batch of clouds developing during the day, knocking highs down a few degrees in the PM tomorrow…60-65° or so.

There is no doubt that the weather awareness of folks who live in the central part of the country was very high over the weekend about what might occur. How many times have you heard, after a devastating tornado tears through a community something along the lines of “we had no idea this would happen” or “I was surprised by the bad weather…”. We hear things like this constantly and sometimes in the world of weather it’s a struggle HOW to get a message about an developing scenario that is potentially alarming (should things pan out). The folks at the Storm Prediction Center could not have done a better job with what happened over the weekend. I thought I could show you a graphic to illustrate that statement. Remember so far we’re now up to 131 tornado reports and 6 deaths from one of the tornadoes.

Here is the forecast from SPC leading up to the event itself.