For a storm that was progged to go across the western Plains states and eventually into the upper Midwest, this thing has certainly been on a slow shift south on the models, and today’s NAM model now takes the storm even a little to the south. If you’ve been reading the blogs this week, and look back to the earlier thoughts, you can see how this storm has been gradually transitioning. For days we’ve watched it off the CA coastline, now that it’s onshore we are seeing continued southwards adjustments to it’s forecast track.
This has done several things to our forecast for tomorrow in my opinion. In some ways it really doesn’t alter the forecast much, in the timing category though it certainly does. One thing through that hasn’t changed is the availability of rich, golf moisture which is sitting to the south of the area this AM. Here is the latest surface map showing the available moisture down towards the Red River.